Saturday, 25 August 2012

Bharat Bijlee - Hold


Bharat Bijlee is an electric equipment manufacturer company. Mainly it has evolved as a transformer manufacturing company. Bharat Bijlee’s business areas can be segregated into two broader segments i.e. a) Power Systems and b) Industrial Systems.
Power Systems: BBL is involved in three different areas namely a) Transformers b) EPC Projects and c) Marketing and maintenance of products.
Transformer Segments: This has been a mute segment in the last financial year. Though there has been increase in order inflow by 30% in terms of unit, the profit margin has been hit owing to high input cost and competition. The unexecuted order book for transformer segment as on 31-Mar-12 stood 12% higher compared to the financial year 2010-11. The outlook for this segment is quite bright. There is major emphasis on Power segment from government of India in the twelfth plan from 2012-17. This has been found that to grow the GDP at the rate of 9%, the energy supplies have to grow at the minimum pace of 6.5%. This does necessarily means that the distribution system has to be improved in tandem. Transformer being an integral part of distribution system, there will be substantial demand for transformer.
Though there are number of competitors in the transformer segment, BBL has good market in the 220 KVA segment.
BBL has established market out of India and this will help BBL to get revenue from export. The last financial year has seen 10% of the order booking come from abroad.
BBL has modernized one of the transformer plants to international standard. This will augment to capture and retain the international clients.
BBL is also working towards training on high voltage transformer. This will help them to optimize the transformer design.
Project segment: BBL also has seen 11% growth in its project segment. However, BBL is not a major player in the Project segment and there are international players competing in this segment.  Going forward, if BBL keeps its focus on the transformer segment, it will be beneficial for the investors.
Industrial Systems: This segment comprises of AC electric motors, gearless machines for elevators, AC variable speed drives.
Motor Segments : BBL’s sales in motor segment has seen a growth of 28%. BBL is also looking into options of increasing the variation in motor segments. However, this segment may face a challenge owing to falling price realization and volatile commodity prices.
BBL has also doubled its sales in drive business and will soon start manufacturing AC drives in collaboration with KEB of Germany. Gearless elevator system has also registered 50% growth.
Overall, the performance if BBL has been a muted performance majorly owing to lack of demand and higher input cost. Whereas the input cost will remain a problem area for BBL, demand for the transformers, motors etc are expected to be increased in the current financial year. BBL has few strong areas over and above its competitors e.g. emphasis on quality, fallback on one segment if the other one doesn’t work out as expected, technical collaboration with KEB and last but not the least very impressive debt to equity ratio.
Financials: BBL has good exposure in Siemens stock around 162.57 Lakhs. Siemens also comes under the commodity segment and hence the segment performance always has ripple effect on BBL.
Currently BBL stock is trading at a trailing PE of 13.69, which lower than its nearest peer EMCO, which is trading at 24.68. In the last one month, the stock has been beaten down owing to its poor financial report and down by 8%. Looking at the prospect of the power sector, investor friendliness of the stock and the valuation of the stock, it can be hold for medium term.
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Monday, 13 August 2012

Kesoram Industries - Time to Sell


Kesoram Industries is medium size organization, which operates mainly in the segment of Tyres, Cement and Rayons.
Tyre Segment: Indian tyre industry has seen a growth of 5.3% for the last financial year.  In revenue term, though it’s not significant, this is important as we passed through economic slowdown in the last year. In the beginning of the financial year, the rubber price was Rs 240 per kg. This has been stabilized during the end of the financial year between Rs 185 and Rs 200. The softening of rubber prices has contributed to the revenue growth. The depreciating rupee also has boosted the revenue earned from export.
Despite the reduction in natural rubber prices, the general trend for the raw material is upward. The increase in tyre price is not fully commensurate the increase in raw material price. In general, Tyre maker’s revenue has grown a good 20%, whereas Kesoram’s revenue growth is only 9% for the financial year 2011-12.
Cement Segment: The overall cement segment has seen a revival in the second half of the financial year 2011-12. Most of the cement industries have increased their production capacity and they have posted a good revenue growth in the last year. However, Kesoram performance in this segment is poor. The production from its two plants namely Vasavadatta and Kesoram are as given below






Revenue and Net Profit Share:

Tyre
Cement
Rayon
Others
Revenue (Crore)
3922
1852
293

PBIT & Dep(Crore)
(180.63)
274.15
9.13
(1.78)

Outlook: Kesoram’s revenue growth is not in line with the industry standard. The major tyre manufacturer’s statistics are as given below (in crores)

Rev-12
Rev-11
Growth%
NP-12
NP-11
Growth%
Apollo Tyres
8906
6025
48%
181.33
198.25
-9%
JK Tyre
6148
5247
17%
11
61.32
-82%
Ceat
4824
3779
28%
7.54
22.28
-66%
Balkrishna
2015
1397
44%
185.62
206.53
-10%
Kesoram
3922
3598
9%
(428)
(15)
-2753%
To overcome the mute performance,
a)      Kesoram has concentrated on the segment of two wheelers and three wheelers, which has shown better growth in the last financial year in comparison with other segments.
b)      Passenger Car radial tyre project at Balasore with a per day production of 80 MT is currently under implementation.
c)       New management is taking initiatives in different directions to improve the profit margin.
Apart from internal challenges of Kesoram in the tire segment, it is expected that OEM demand for tyres in the financial year 2013 will be between 8 to 9%.
In the Cement segment, though the demand is expected to be high on account of emphasis on infrastructure from government. The overall production in the last financial year has been decreased whereas all its peer has produced more cements than that in 2010-11.
The revenue increase from Rayon is seemed to be flat in 2011-12.
Spun pipes and Foundries and Hindusthan Heavy chemicals facilities continued to be under suspension of work.
Overall the scenario for Kesoram is not very prospective. In the quarter ending Sep-11 and Dec-11, it has posted an operating loss of 71.88 crores and 86.36 crores. In the quarter ending March, 2012, though the gross profit is 52.43 crores, operating profit is only 9.56 croces. Whereas Kesoram needs to solve its internal problems, the external business is becoming tougher. In the tire industry, the current financial year may not see a good growth. Over and above the international brands line Bridgestone, Michelin have already entered into Indian Market. There is more concern that more and more commercial vehicle may shift from cross ply tyres to radial.
There is also high financing cost for Kesoram with a debt equity ratio of 4.5. With this high debt, this will be major outgoing source for the company. In the current financial year, the company has finance cost of 410.15 crore.
Considering the challenges both internal and external, it is recommended that the stock can be sold.

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Wednesday, 8 August 2012

Small Cap Stock Idea - KCP


In the small cap space, KCP ltd could be a good bet. KCP has diversified portfolio. However, cement is the major contributing segment for KCP. It has good potential in the sugar and heavy engineering space as well. KCP completed 70 years in the last financial year. Recently, KCP declared a dividend of 0.75 per share (or 75%).
In the financial year 2011-12, it has shown significant growth in spite of gloomy scenario in Indian economy. Income from operation has been increased from 36173 lakhs to 68725 Lakhs, an increase of 90%. The operating profit jumped from 5537 Lakhs to 8344 lakhs, an increase of 50%. Net profit has been increased from 4135 Lakhs to 6153 Lakhs, an increase of 48.8%.
On a consolidated basis, the revenue has been increased from 70465 Lakhs to 110557 Lakhs, an increase of 57%. Operating profit has been increased from 11316 Lakhs to 15074 Lakhs, an increase of 33%. Net profit has been increased from 9590 Lakhs to 12751 Lakhs, an increase of 33%.
 Standalone
Revenue
Profit
Segment
2012
2011
% Growth
2012
2011
% Growth
Engineering
14401
13314
8%
3405
4541
-25%
Cement
54232
22494
141%
5384
1886
185%
Power
1905
1752
9%
748
745
0%
Sugar






Others
245
556
-56%
-107
-120
-11%
Total
70783
38116
86%
9430
7052
34%
 Consolidates
Revenue
Profit
Segment
2012
2011
% Growth
2012
2011
% Growth
Engineering
22172
20296
9%
3712
5081
-27%
Cement
54232
22494
141%
5384
1886
185%
Power
1905
1752
9%
748
745
0%
Sugar
34061
26680
28%
6941
5515
26%
Others
245
556
-56%
-107
0

Total
70783
38116
86%
9430
7052
34%






There is a loss in engineering sector mainly owing to the poor demand and realization. Cement sector has seen significant rise in demand almost 141%. Sugar has also seen a spurt in profit of 26%.
India is the second largest producer of cement in the world. The cement industry has good potential to boom as there is thrust to improve the infrastructure. In the financial year 2011-12, most of the companies have posted good revenue growth on the account of economic recovery in the second half. In 2011-12, the cement industry grew from 5% to 6.4%. In the cement segment, KCP has put major effort to increase its capacity. In March, 2011, it has commissioned its clinkerisation facility at Muktalaya. Also it has started production in the cement unit II in May, 2011. However, this segment is having risk from its input of coal and power. According to a report on the industry for the 12th five year plan, India would require overall cement capacity around 480MT, whereas the current capacity is 330 MT.  As a result, most of the cement companies are planning to increase their production capacity. It is expected that the ccountry’s cement production will grow at CAGR 12%.
Risk :
a ) The cement sector is cyclical in nature. The boost in demand accompanied with fall in cement price.  The cement price has been fallen from 306/50kg to Rs 290. There may be further slip in cement price. This will put pressure on the profit margin.
b) Coal availability – Cement industry is very much dependent on coal. Though the coal price has seen a slide of 20% this year. This is owing to oversupply and tepid Asian demand. Any rise in coal price from hereon will impact the net profit.
c) Uncertainty in power supply – Power supply is predominantly controlled by the power transmission company, which are mostly under direct control of the government. To reduce such risk, KCP is using the captive power plant in parallel with power procurement.
EPS – From 2.99 to 4.56 and on consolidated basis it has been increased from 5.89 to 8.01
Concern: Though the long term borrowing has been reduced from 21844 Lakhs to 17627 Lakhs, the debt equity ratio needs to be improved.
The stock is available in very cheap valuation of PE 7 (trailing) whereas the industry PE (for cement sector) is 17.
The book value of the stock is also quite high i.e. 26.73
Based on the thrust on Infrastructure from Government, potential growth and cheap valuation, the stock can be a good bet for a one year period.



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